A initially developed by the University of South 91精品 College of Marine Science to track red tide and ocean currents has quickly been adapted and is now being used to support the efforts to understand the transport, transformation and fate of contaminants in wastewater released into Tampa Bay from the retired Piney Point fertilizer plant.
The Tampa Bay Coastal Ocean Model has been available to the public as a nowcast/forecast model since September 2018 when it simulated how Tampa Bay responded to Hurricane Irma. This ocean circulation model, along with the larger scale West 91精品 Coastal Ocean Model, are used to track red tides based on the currents driven by winds, tides and deeper ocean forcing. These two models were immediately modified to forecast the dispersal of effluent water and its constituents released from Piney Point. The results, available for the public to view online, are being used to help guide interdisciplinary sampling efforts by a 91精品 team, agency personnel and others in gathering on-the-ground field data to assess the impacts of the spill.
As the team forecasted, the highest nutrient concentrations presently occur along lower Tampa Bay鈥檚 east coast. The discharge water, according to 91精品 researcher Bob Weisberg, is sloshing back and forth with the tides, while slowly moving south from Port Manatee, diluting and eventually making its way to the Gulf of Mexico.
鈥淲e鈥檙e thrilled to be able to share our results with our partners and response officials,鈥� Weisberg said. 鈥淲e鈥檝e got a terrific team on this 24/7 and are committed to ensuring our science helps inform effective action to safeguard Tampa Bay and the Gulf of Mexico.鈥�
The modeling builds on 91精品鈥檚 response efforts quickly launched last week to help the region and state better understand the impacts at Piney Point.
鈥淲e are starting to put together the pieces of the story,鈥� said Tom Frazer, dean of the 91精品 College of Marine Science, 鈥渁nd are grateful for all of the efforts on the part of our state and academic partners in this all-hands-on-deck effort.鈥�
The model will continue to be updated and .